First of all, I still cannot fathom why would anything close to a nuclear confrontation be on the Iranians’ minds. Whatever Iran is doing on the nuclear armament race they are better off thinking suitcase nukes than long range, missile attacks on anybody. The U.S. didn’t spend 50 years of a Cold War sitting with their thumbs up their ass. They already have a nuclear arsenal and is mighty deadly. In such a confrontationl, either the Israelis or the U.S., would only have to sneeze a bugger size of nukes to wipe Iran off the map and have enough arsenal left to wipe the rest of the globe 10 times over. Suicide bombers only have a horrifying impact in the public opinion because their damage is directed to civilians, albeit limited in scope, and because they are repeatable (i.e. limited in number to the number of fanatics willing to pulp themselves and everyone else in a 50m radious). Iran taking the nuclear path, unless attacked first and in a path of total destruction, would be akin to gambling their entire population on a 5 minutes war. Furthermore, anything nuclear used close to Israel by other means would stink so much of Iran that reaction would be swift and on a shoot first, wonder later.
On the other hand, even though Hizballah held their ground pretty good against a land confrontation with Israel, I agree with Debka that Iran’s interests have been hurt in this snafu. I believe Iran had hopes for an exponential scalation of hostilities. Not only didn’t happen, the logistics of resupplying Hizballah with arms would be daunting to say the least.
The real shame is Israel’s red and bullish reactions to insult and injury. The destruction of a country that has suffered so much in a civil war and a recent invasion wasn’t justified. A world in which disproportionate retribution is assessed on an enemy would never succed in peace and would guarantee perpetual hate. Not in the rest of the world and specially not in the Middle East.
After UN Security Council resolution 1701 calling for a truce was carried Friday, Aug. 11, the heads of the regime received two separate evaluations of the situation in Lebanon – one from Iran’s foreign ministry and one from its supreme national security council. Both were bleak: their compilers were concerned that Iran had been manipulatively robbed of its primary deterrent asset ahead of a probable nuclear confrontation with the United States and Israel.
While the foreign ministry report highlighted the negative aspects of the UN resolution, the council’s document complained that Hizballah squandered thousands of rockets – either by firing them into Israel or having them destroyed by the Israeli air force.
The writer of this report is furious over the waste of Iran’s most important military investment in Lebanon merely for the sake of a conflict with Israeli over two kidnapped soldiers.
It took Iran two decades to build up Hizballah’s rocket inventory.
DEBKAfile’s sources estimate that Hizballah’s adventure wiped out most of the vast sum of $4-6 bn the Iranian treasury sunk into building its military strength. The organization was meant to be strong and effective enough to provide Iran with a formidable deterrent to Israel embarking on a military operation to destroy the Islamic regime’s nuclear infrastructure.