About Cuba and its future…
It is no use talking about the possibility of change, since it is forthcoming anyway. But we can consider possible changes. I’m afraid that both Castro’s supporters and adversaries will not like my forecast.
To begin with, the upcoming changes will be extremely painful for Cubans, judging by Russia’s experience. Although Cuba is much smaller, it will go the same way as Russia did on its way from an authoritarian regime to democracy, from total censorship to freedom of the press, from a one-party to a multiparty system, and so on. Cuba has some unique national, economic and geographic features, such as proximity to the United States, but the common features of a transition period will most likely dominate.
So the transition will not be smooth and painless. Fidel’s brother Raul or some mediocre politician will take over for a short time and do their best to keep the country under control. This is a useless but psychologically understandable intention. In any case, the regime will fight for power tooth and nail. But Fidel’s regime will collapse overnight, just like communism crumbled in the Soviet Union, because it was not made for compromise, modernization or true democracy. Historically, such regimes cannot survive.